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Musings on Markets
JANUARY 19, 2022
In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021).
Musings on Markets
OCTOBER 4, 2023
We started the year with significant uncertainty about whether the surge in inflation seen in 2022 would persist as well as about whether the economy was headed into a recession. The Markets in the Third Quarter Coming off a year of rising rates in 2022, interest rates have continued to command center stage in 2023.
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Musings on Markets
JANUARY 21, 2023
It is the nature of stocks that you have good years and bad ones, and much as we like to forget about the latter during market booms, they recur at regular intervals, if for no other reason than to remind us that risk is not an abstraction, and that stocks don't always win, even in the long term. at the start of that year.
Musings on Markets
JANUARY 20, 2021
Investors are constantly in search of a single metric that will tell them whether a market is under or over valued, and consequently whether they should buying or selling holdings in that market. Does the price of risk have to be positive? The answer depends on whether human beings are risk averse or not.
Musings on Markets
AUGUST 5, 2023
As part of that obsession, since September 2008, I have estimated an equity risk premium for the S&P 500 at the start of each month, and not only used that premium, when valuing companies during that month, but shared my estimate on my webpage and on social media. What is it?
Musings on Markets
MARCH 25, 2021
The answers are not academic, since they cut to the heart of how stockholders will do over the rest of the year, and whether value investors will finally be able to mount a comeback. The Interest Rates Story To me the biggest story of markets in 2021 has been the rise of interest rates, especially at the long end of the maturity spectrum.
Musings on Markets
MAY 6, 2022
In most time periods, those recalibrations and resets tend to be small and in both directions, resulting in the ups and downs that pass for normal volatility. Clearly, we are not in one of those time periods, as markets approach bipolar territory, with big moves up and down.
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